Limitations of Political Polling

[stickmaker]

Why are so many political polls so wrong? Confirmation bias, largely.

Pollsters who don't give their customers what they want don't get rehired. Most people - especially politicians - don't want data; they want reassurance.  

Comments

[sraun]

There's also the fact that there is a variety of what claims to a be a poll, and is actually an attempt to change your mind about a specific candidate. It goes:

1. What's your opinion of {candidate}?
2. Did you know {usually considered negative piece of information} about {candidate}?
3. Did you know {different usually considered negative piece of information} about {candidate}?
4. Does that change your opinion of {candidate}?

And then they report on question 4.